Work the problem

I’ve noticed that my decision making could do with a tune up. This was made abundantly clear to me during an incident where I came over a rise while driving in the rain…and ran into a pool of water that reached my axles. After narrowly escaping damage to my car (and a need to have it rescued), I realized that my approach to problem solving needed to change.
While driving, I had been caught up worrying about flooding cutting me off from my house. This potential disaster had coloured my decisions in the moment. Clearly, there were two elements to my approach that needed to change — my mindset toward problems, and my process for working through them.
It’s easy to get caught up in the what-ifs and worst-case outcomes when facing a problem. This is especially true when facing a problem where you seem powerless. This is counterproductive. Similarly, having a good process for working through problems is vital. The ideal process would be one that can be applied over a majority of problem domains, from programming puzzles to bureaucratic ineptitude.

The right perspective

NASA Director: This could be the worst disaster NASA’s ever experienced.
Gene Kranz: With all due respect, sir, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.
– Apollo 13 (1995)

This quote from 1995’s Apollo 13 highlights two sides of the same coin. Both of these characters had seen the same situation. One of them started with a lack of confidence in their ability to overcome it. The other started with the position that, in the absence of a confirmed catastrophe, the situation was not only recoverable, but would be the greatest comeback of the agency.

“If we can recognize that change and uncertainty are basic principles, we can greet the future and the transformation we are undergoing with the understanding that we do not know enough to be pessimistic.”
– Hazel Henderson

Even if Apollo 13 had ended in the worst disaster NASA had ever seen, trying to work the problem with that belief would have made things harder, and more stressful. In my experience, starting with such a belief leads to a kind of tunnel vision. The worst-case outcome obscures the actual goal I’m working towards, and in doing so, makes the problem seem harder than it actually is.
Breaking this tunnel vision starts with remembering that the worst has not yet come to pass, and may never come to pass. As the futurist and environmentalist Hazel Henderson put it, “we can greet the future…with the understanding that we do not know enough to be pessimistic.” It is a powerful antidote for our mind’s tendency to assume the worst.

Work the problem

“Let’s work the problem people. Let’s not make things worse by guessing.”
– Gene Kranz, Apollo 13 (1995)

The right perspective is the foundation for your decision making process. Having a dependable process to work a problem to a solution has helped me to overcome the mind’s built in negativity bias. Such a process is what allows us to find the solution we need, and make our mindset a reality.
The ideal process would be useful in both static situations such as software development, and dynamic situations such as handling an uncooperative bureaucrat at the department of main roads.

“You solve one problem… and you solve the next one… and then the next. And If you solve enough problems, you get to come home.”
– Mark Watney, The Martian (2015)

While there are any number of mental models for problem solving, the one I find myself using the most is John Boyd’s OODA loops. It’s been useful in approaching a wide variety of challenges. It functions well on its own, or as a framework to plug more domain specific models into.
The OODA loop is composed of four steps —

1. Observe - Gather data with your 5 senses.
2. Orient - Contextualise the data with your intuition, and knowledge. If it’s not a realtime competition, you can do some research to define your unknowns.
3. Decide - Formulate a course of action by using your observations, knowledge, and intuition.
4. Act - Enact the decision without delay, and start the loop again from the start.

The loop is repeated in a continuous cycle until you either win, lose, or quit. As a process, it allows you to make iterative decisions, atomising the problem until you reach a solution.

Take trying to cook a new recipe for instance. It seemed simple enough, so you skipped doing any mise-en-place (setup before cooking begins). Now you’re juggling several dishes on the stove, and you still need to prep some ingredients. It feels out of control.
Pause, and observe the work in progress. Orient yourself by remembering the recipe, and your past culinary experiences. Make a decision that buys you time (maybe you take something off the heat temporarily). Act, and repeat the loop until you arrive at a passable dish. And next time you know not to skip the mise-en-place.

The original use of this decision-making model was in competitive, dynamic environments such as aerial combat. I’ve found it useful in handling most situations where better decision making is needed. It works equally well in the kitchen, or when diagnosing a failing build pipeline, or when driving in adverse weather.
Sometimes all it takes to get back on track is a reminder that it’s not over yet and work through this loop a few times.

Conclusion

“Success is never final. Failure is never fatal. It’s courage that counts.”
— John Wooden

It takes both mindset and process to drive the best circumstance to overcome the problems in front of us. The right mindset is one of optimism - we rarely see the entire picture, and thus do not have enough information to be pessimistic. Our decision making process should build on that foundation, and work in iterative loops.
Next time you’re facing a chaotic situation, or you feel yourself rushing (and that the solution is slipping from your grasp as a result), take a breath. Remind yourself that it’s not over yet, and keep working the problem with deliberate intent. In the end, all we have to do is stay in the game. A solution will eventuate.